Housing Numbers

*** CPRE's response to latest fall in government's projected housing need figures... announced 30 November 2010 ***

The Labour Government set housing targets in the Regional Plan of some 21,500 new houses per year (including Northamptonshire) to be built between 2006-2026.  This compares to an average of 18,966 houses per year built in the region between 2001-2008 (at the peak of the housing market).

The Coalition Government revoked the Regional Plan largely due to the unpopularity of centrally imposed housing numbers. The Government intends Local Planning authorities to be responsible for establishing the right level of local housing provision in their area. Some guidance to local authorities is contained in a letter on Revocation of Regional Strategies. A "Localism Bill" is expected to be introduced in the current Parliamentary session which will set out the Government proposals for housing provision in more detail.

CPRE accepts that there is a need to build more houses, to accommodate a growing population and falling household sizes. However, we consider the 20-year housing target for the East Midlands proposed by the previous Government to be an over-provision and unsustainable.  See CPRE's press release, 6 July 2010, welcoming the scrapping of housing targets but urging the need for some form of strategic planning.

Instead of more market homes, i.e. those bought and sold on the open market, CPRE believes there is a real need for more affordable homes (social rented homes and intermediate homes for key workers etc) in certain locations.

CPRE believes we need to put much more emphasis into building the affordable houses we need rather than simply allocating large targets across the region.

The previous Government's housing figures were projections, based on past trends, which may or may not materialise. The growth in the number of households depends on a wide range of economic, social and demographic factors which cannot be accurately predicted over a fifteen to twenty year period. See CPRE's critique of the Government's household projections Housing the Future, December 2009.

CPRE believe it is sensible to plan for new dwellings we know we will need rather than ones we might need.

See downloads below for CPRE East Midlands commissioned report, Assessment of House Building Projections for the East Midlands Region, by housing statistician Stephen Custance Baker. This analysis raises many questions about the validity of government's projected housing figures for the region.  Also CPRE's response to the Partial Review Options Consultation, Oct 2009, which calls into further question the Government's household projections.

CPRE considers that we should be adopting an approach of plan, monitor and manage rather than simply allocating large targets across the region.


CPRE 2010

Rural Campaigners have highlighted new Government figures in which the projected growth in new household numbers has been revised down from previous releases. CPRE claims the fall reinforces the need for a ‘plan, monitor, manage' approach to planning for housing.

The latest projections from the Department of Communities and Local Government (CLG) anticipate 20,500 fewer households will be formed in England each year between 2008 and 2031. However, the number of households is still projected to grow by 232,000 each year.

Kate Houghton, Planning Officer for the Campaign to Protect Rural England, says: "This fall demonstrates the folly of basing targets for house building solely on projections that can change dramatically from one year to the next.

"The Government has made the right decision in pledging to abolish top down housing targets as it's now clear these were far too simplistic, based on data that does not account for a whole range of complex issues that determine what houses will be needed, and where. These targets put valuable countryside and Green Belt land at risk from developments that may not even have been required."

Increases to population remain the primary driver of household growth, accounting for nearly three-quarters of all new households. However, significant growth is also predicted to come from one person households which are set to increase by 159,000 per year, equating to two-thirds of the increase in households. By 2033, 19 per cent of the household population of England is projected to live alone, compared with 14 per cent in 2008.

Kate Houghton continued: "The projections suggest that in the future there will be more single and older person households. Our report ‘The Proximity Principle' shows that living closer together encourages greater social interaction and this should play a crucial role in how our society plans for better neighbourhoods [2].

"We hope that ministers will consider the importance of housing density, mixed housing and easy access to services when drawing up new national planning guidance in the New Year. This will be crucial in delivering the sustainable and affordable housing the country needs."

Downloads:
Assessment of House Building Projections for EM
 (1,221 Kb)